The unexpected toppling of the EU’s major best friend within the Sahel has punctured Western schadenfreude on Russia’s Africa-summit flop.
In a single day information on Thursday (27 July) that Niger’s military had got rid of president Mohamed Bazoum from energy took Europe via marvel, coming in a while after EU international affairs leader Josep Borrell visited Niamey to reward Bazoum’s pro-democratic reforms.
“The HRVP [Borrell] was once in Niger closing week, the whole lot was once going neatly with the undertaking, the whole lot was once going on target,” his spokeswoman mentioned, relating to an EU military-training undertaking there.
When requested via press in Brussels if EU-trained squaddies would possibly have taken section within the putsch, the spokeswoman mentioned the EU undertaking started paintings handiest in February and its practicing lessons “have no longer but began”.
When requested if any international actors have been concerned within the coup, she added: “We are recently comparing the location … [things are] nonetheless very fluid”.
The EU, France, the United Kingdom, and the USA condemned the putsch and recommended squaddies to unfastened Bazoum.
“We propose British nationals to stay indoors,” the United Kingdom international place of work mentioned in flash safety recommendation to expats.
America state division mentioned: “At the moment town is calm. We propose everybody to restrict pointless actions, and keep away from all commute alongside Rue de l. a. République [a central boulevard in Niamey]”.
If the putsch succeeds, it is going to constitute a big setback for Western international locations seeking to take care of political and armed forces affect within the area.
France had not too long ago moved its centre of operations to Niger after Mali kicked out global troops combating jihadists within the Sahel.
The strategic implications have been “very critical … no longer just for the French and EU but additionally the USA, which maintains a drone base there”, mentioned Alex Vines, an Africa skilled at British think-tank Chatham Space.
“The putschists of their remark closing night time mentioned all current [international] agreements can be revered — however informed exterior companions to stay their distance in regards to the coup,” he added.
The Niger surprise comes amid a geopolitical tug-of-war between the West and Russia in Africa.
Niger borders Mali and Libya the place Russian mercenary workforce Wagner have their biggest numbers of opponents. It additionally borders Burkina-Faso, the place Wagner is attempting to construct a presence.
The coup coincided with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s summit with 17 African leaders in St Petersburg the similar day.
Borrell’s spokeswoman famous on Thursday that a long way fewer leaders got here to Russia than all through Putin’s closing Africa summit in Sochi in 2019.
She additionally mentioned the EU had way more to provide Africa than Russia with regards to assist and funding.
But when that was once the case, St Petersburg gave the look of a greater position than Brussels by which to devise intrigues on Niger’s long run this week.
Putin’s visitors incorporated Mali and Burkina-Faso junta leaders Assimi Goita and Ibrahim Traore.
The Wagner boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, was once additionally there, in line with a photograph of him shaking arms with the president of the Central African Republic, which was once posted on social media, although Wagner had not too long ago mutinied in opposition to the Kremlin.
For Chatham Space’s Vines, Russia had no hand within the Niger occasions. “In no way, seems like that is totally pushed via native politics,” he informed EUobserver.
“We look ahead to a fast answer of this interior political disaster within the hobby of restoring civil peace for the good thing about our pleasant Nigerien other people. We rely at the fast unencumber of President M. Bazoum,” the Russian international ministry additionally mentioned.
However Bazoum had complained in Would possibly about anti-Western Wagner propaganda whilst on a state discuss with to London.
And a few Niger coup supporters additionally waved Russian flags and chanted anti-French slogans, Reuters reported, prompting hypothesis.
“That is Wagner modus operandi in all places,” mentioned Joana de Deus Pereira, a Russia specialist at British defence think-tank the Royal United Products and services Institute.
The low attendance on the Africa summit may well be a PR failure for Russia, however it could be a mistake to underestimate Putin’s tenacity, she added.
“For Putin, this can be a marathon, most certainly an Iron Guy race — you combat, you struggle, you undergo,” she mentioned.
